Dr. John Hinchcliff - Futurist - 2004 Report - Ideas for Creative Artists to Consider
February 27, 2008
Dr. John Hinchcliff has graciously provided some insight into ideas that were under discussion at the Annual Conference of the World Future Society in 2004. This contains some remarkable ideas and insights that are even now making current news. I asked Dr. John about the Futurist Society and he provided me with the following information as insight into what they consider.
It is most encouraging to know that there is such a society.
Some Reflections on the
Annual Conference of the World Future Society
31 July - 2 August, 2004
Washington DC, USA
by Dr. John Hinchcliff
Most of the 950 people who attended the various sessions of this conference were interested in particular issues, but being futurists recognized the many synergistic connections between the various dimensions of the human experience.
Experts in the fields of energy, health, security, biotechnology, nanotechnology, computer sciences, international politics, globalization, human resource management, sustainability, education, development, religion, creativity, science, life extension, the city, futures research, sport, economics, and the discipline of future studies, shared their expertise and wisdom. Discussions on terrorism were particularly pertinent, given the heightened alert of security forces in Washington D.C.
Some participants were practicing professionals in the field, usually providing consultancy services to companies interested in planning for their futures. Some were commentators. Some were practising professionals. Some were naturally curious in search for answers about the space and time where we will spend the rest of our lives.
Many were optimists believing that the future could be enhanced by their creative interventions. This assumption was supported by some presenters who suggested that the trends indicated a better future for the human species. Some were pessimists deeply worried that humanity will not be able to meet the increasingly complex challenges of the various crises. But everyone was united in the belief that studying for the future is crucial for decision-making about the present.
From an amazing range of options I chose to attend the following list of presentations.
1. Using Future Tools to Better Understand and Create the Future
This was a pre-conference, full day, seven-hour session led by Clement Bezold, president of the Institute for Alternative Futures, and associates Marcia Rhea, and William Rowley. They took us through interrelating methods used by futurists, i.e., futures tools (forecasts, scenarios, and visioning), examples of substantive scenarios and visions which have influenced several sectors and industries, and the effective use of these tools to enhance learning and effective choice within organisations and communities. We divided into specific topic groups. I chose transport systems for a city.
2. The Hydrogen Economy
Jeremy Rifkin, founder and president of the Foundation on Economic Trends, and author of the respected book The Hydrogen Economy, opened the Conference. This was a brilliant lecture acclaimed with a standing ovation. He stated clearly the dramatic choice humanity faces relating to the energy question. He argued that we are quickly approaching the crisis of insufficiency in the provision of fossil fuel with dire consequences for industrial civilization.
Rifkin explained how the use of hydrogen will dramatically cut down on carbon dioxide emissions and mitigate the effects of global warming. It would end the dangerous geo-political political game caused by dependence on imported oil and be of enormous economic and political benefit to developing societies. Because hydrogen exists everywhere hydrogen could be the first truly democratic and decentralized energy regime in history. “Every auto, home and office will have its own fuel cell, and everyone will be on their own”.
3. The Law Of Accelerating Returns And The Coming Merger of Human and Machine
Ray Kurzweil is the world renowned inventor including the first print-to-speech reading machine for the blind, the first music synthesiser capable of recreating the grand piano and other leading technologies and author of the book: The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence.
In a remarkable presentation he described new inventions made possible by developments in computer science, biotechnology, and nanotechnology. The dramatic expansion of human knowledge, including knowledge about the human brain is accelerating exponentially. For example, three-dimensional molecular computers will provide the hardware for “strong” artificial intelligence well before 2030. When machine intelligence matches the range and subtlety of human intelligence it will quickly soar past our intelligence because of the continuing acceleration of information based technologies, as well as the ability of machines to instantly share their knowledge.
Intelligent nano-robots will be deeply integrated into the environment, in our bodies, and in our brains, providing vastly extended longevity, full-immersion virtual reality incorporating all of the senses, and significantly enhanced human intelligence. The mind-blowing implication will be an intimate merger between the technology creating species and the evolutionary process it has spawned.
4. Reverse Engineering, Simulating the Human Brain, and Radical Life Extension
Ray Kurzweil continued his presentation on the human brain - machine interface. He explained how science will be able soon to model and simulate the human brain in its entirety. The sensors placed on individual inter-neuronal connections show how the brain creates thoughts and our thoughts create the brain.
Developments in biotechnology and information science will enable scientists to overcome major diseases and slow down ageing. Within two decades science will challenge the meme that ageing and death are inevitable.
The promises of this new era mean the ending of much suffering. For example, all parts of the body will be reproduced, defective genes terminated, more appropriate drugs designed, desirable nutritional profiles designed for individuals, deadly diseases such as SARS eradicated, and nanobots (mechanical and electronic devices) will cure physical and environmental problems.
Inevitably there are perils. Bioterrorists could produce biological diseases which involve the self replication of pathogens in healthy cells. However he argued that regulation is not appropriate. Censorship would drive the science underground and curtail beneficient technological developments. For example nanobots could be developed to protect us from terrorism. He argued that our values of liberty, openness, democracy, tolerance for diversity, respect for knowledge and the expansion of our civilisation will mean threats of terrorism should be counteracted.
However, another scientist and futurist, Ian Pearson, expressed considerable alarm and pessimism at the peril confronting the human species because these new technological devises could be used by terrorists for disastrously malevolent purposes.
5. The Nature of Futurism: Two Views
Two founding members of The World Future Society compared and debated their differing views on the nature of futurism.
Barbara Marx Hubbard drew from “cosmogenesis” and the lessons of evolution to chart a ” normative ” course for humanity commensurate with our spiritual, social, and scientific potential.
Joseph Coates, a distinguished senior futurist, disagreed with Hubbard’s hypothesis and described social, biological, environmental, and other factors accelerating human revolution. He suggested long-term changes in our species and discussed how we could change.
6. Technology Futures Analysis: the Road Ahead
Guenter Clar, Center of Technology Assessment, European Commission; Howard Linstone, editor-in-chief, ” Technology Forecasting and Social Change”, and Alan Porter, Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering, described a technique called Technology Futures Analysis (TFA). This was very technical and not of interest to me.
7. The Future Job Search
Anne Chamberlain, Director, Work-Place Futures, Brooklyn, New York, described how traditional job seeking methods are being replaced by creative alternatives in our era of technological change, “talent gaps”, and varying alternative managerial practices.
8. Global Overview of the Prospects for Humanity
Jerome Glenn, Executive Director, Millenium project for the American Council for the United Nations, and Theodore Gordon, senior research fellow, Millennium Project produced their findings as published in the “2004 State of the Future” publication. They presented an overview of 15 of the major challenges facing humanity based on information distilled from 15,000 futurists from 50 countries. Their trend impact analysis, based on eight years of research, is described by their State of the Future Index (SOFI). This device assesses quantitatively the progress humanity is making in addressing the global challenges. Basically they argued that humanity is capable of responding positively and there are reasonable grounds to be optimistic. But they worried whether we have the wisdom to take the appropriate actions. The threats are proliferating and worsening and there is no way of forecasting the future of the terrorist threat.
9. Dragons and Tigers
Dr Marvon Cetron, President of Forecasting International, and former consultant to the White House and Pentagon, compared the opportunities for investment in India and China. At present and for the next five to seven years it would be appropriate to invest in manufacturing opportunities in China. China’s GDP is $5000 per capita compared with India’s $2,600. Only 10% of Chinese live below the poverty line while in India the number is 25%. China has solved many problems that India has not. For example, 86% of the Chinese people can read and write, their population is stable, and communism has stripped away most of China’s social inequalities.
However India has a tradition of democracy that is 2000 years old and has opened itself to the world. Most importantly, India speaks English and is taking the lead in the areas of computers and telecommunications. 78% of the world’s computer programming is done in India. There are more engineers and science graduates speaking English in India than in the entire rest of the world. 63% of the English-speaking movies are made in India. 400 of the top 500 companies operate in India. India is overcoming a brain drain with Indians returning to their home country.
Cetron argued that with education India will control population growth, overcome fraud and become a great economy in 25 years time.
10. The Power of “what if “: Thinking Techniques that Reveal the Future and Spur Innovations
Edie Weiner, co-author of “Insiders Guide to the Future,” provided an entertaining keynote luncheon address in which she explored our ways of thinking about information concerning the future. She challenged us to see things as they really are, then imagine what they might be, and thereby see more clearly and further about the future of our organisations, our communities, and ourselves.
11. The End of the Oil Age: How soon, How real, How Critical?
Four experts discussed our energy needs given the projection that by 2020 fossil fuels will have dried up. Some experts project it will be 2010 when the crisis strikes. The presenters suggested an energy “wreck” that will be a far greater threat to civilisation than terrorism.
Pessimists suggest that is already too late to overcome major difficulties particularly for developing economies. Optimists believe if we work very hard we might escape the enormous trauma ahead. Renewable energies and sustainable systems could service the needs of our global community in the future. But actions have to be taken now.
Discussions focused on wind, solar, bio fuels, and wave power. Wind power costs are comparable with hydroelectric power but eventually will be the cheapest option. Solar power is still more expensive but costs are reducing.
It is necessary that there be government tax incentives and rebates available to make investments in renewable energies a profitable practice. China has committed itself to achieving a target of 17% of its total energy in renewables. Germany has pledged that 20 per cent of its electricity will be from renewables by 2020.
Hydrogen has been “over-hyped”. Fuel cells are very expensive and nuclear power too dangerous. But hydrogen is extremely promising as a clean, decentralised means of power.
Wave energy is still untapped with only one commercial project in existence. Bureaucratic regulatory policies and practices are shambolic in this area.
12. Driving Toward a Future of Proactive Computing
David Tennehouse, Vice-President and Director of Research of the Intel Corporation, described how computing is on the verge of a new era.
Presently our model of interactive computing means that we connect one on one with computers, inserting commands and waiting for responses. However we cannot meet the challenges of dealing with multiple computers including desktop and laptop systems, cell phones, and a growing variety of consumer electronic devices. When we have hundreds of devices to connect with, it will be impossible for us to interact directly with each one.
So we are moving to an era of proactive computing when computers will anticipate our needs, interact with each other, and act on our behalf. This will free us to focus on high-level activities and take greater responsibility for our own lives. Computers will enable us to take charge of our own health providing information on disease detection, prepare a meal for us, utilise seismic monitoring to predict earthquakes, and dictate the times for, and organize the delivery of irrigation, fertilization and harvesting of vegetables, fruit in the orchard and grapes in the vineyard.
13. The Brave New World of Health Care
Richard Lamm, former Governor of Colorado and Director of the Centre for Public Policy and Contemporary Issues at the University of Denver, presented a critical analysis of American health care provision. He argued that the entire health system needed a new vision because of the collision of expensive technology and changing demographics.
We are getting older and modern medicine extends our lifespan. However the birth rate is dropping. And the next generation will not be able to pay for the escalating health care costs. Lamm stated: “Poverty is now found much more in diapers than in hearing aids” because of this challenge of “intergenerational equity.” Already health-care costs cause the most personal bankruptcies and insurance costs are escalating and unsustainable.
Health care rationing will become the general rule but the United States does not have an ethical basis for a fair rationing system. A universal coverage which means coverage for all cannot mean coverage of everything.
Assessment
Because of the enormous range, depth and quality of the presentations, this conference was one of the most interesting I have attended. Certainly, the issues are of huge importance to our future. The challenge is to respond effectively recognizing the limited opportunities we have to influence the forces creating the significant crises faced by the global community. The conference was attended by people who want to be involved, who want to understand the root causes of the problems, and who want to explore possible solutions with others who look to the future with hope.
Dr. John Hinchcliff
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I believe that understanding and keeping up with such discussions is an important and vital part of being a Creative Artist. That within such information are the seeds of great and imaginative storytelling, that can both capture and inpire our imagination while at the same time giving us cause to consider, “Is this what we really want, or need?” and “What are the pros and cons of such progress?” or “Is this really progress?”
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